Regional Construction Hotspots in Great Britain

A forward-looking analysis of construction activity by region and by sector.

Overview

Given the relative size of the London and South East economies, populations and construction GVA, it is easy to think that the majority of construction work is taking place in these regions.

This annual regional report analyses construction contract awards at a high level of regional granularity, firstly to identify regions where values are higher or lower than the long-term average – hotspots and coldspots – and secondly, to offer a forward-looking indication of growth by region and by sector. One of the challenges in using such granular data is the large lags in reporting of official output data; ONS data for regional construction activity in 2024 was not yet published at the time of writing. So, by using Barbour ABI’s data on contract awards in 2025, this aims to highlight construction work ahead, rather than reporting on activity is past periods that may not be relevant.

It also showcases the breadth of variation from a single Great Britain-wide figure of construction performance or contract awards activity. Overall in 2025, total GB contract awards rose 18.0%, but with growth rates ranging between +7778% and -89% when analysing at a considerably more granular regional level, stark differences in regional and sector performance become apparent.

It is important to note that the economic backdrop will be a major driver and influence on contract awards – from delays in tendering due to cost rises or project adjustments, hesitancy to proceed when financing costs have increased, to large projects initially approved three to five years ago now reaching go-ahead and contract award. The value of contract awards in 2025 is still likely to reflect high rates of construction price inflation and even some re-tendered contracts to reflect renegotiated or repricing. Some may also have been cancelled or delayed in order to reassess viability. Indeed, uncertainty and viability are both key risks to final investment decisions and the lags between contract award and start date may also be lengthened as cost inflation passes through the wider construction supply chain following the rise in oil prices to above $100 per barrel between February and May 2026. Changing government priorities for capital investment may also see some projects awarded contracts in 2025 not continue, or be reduced in scale. The previous government under Keir Starmer announced that departmental capital budgets will need to be trimmed by around 1.0% per year to fund the Defence Investment Plan, with larger cuts pencilled in for the Department of Transport.

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What is a hotspot or a coldspot?

Hotspots and coldspots seek to identify regions where contract awards in 2025 were significantly above or below previous years, signposting pockets of activity or a contraction in construction activity over the near-term horizon.
Some regions of the country host more construction activity than others. Manchester and Lewisham and Southwark were in the top 10 largest regions in terms of the value of contracts awarded in 2025. However, the value of contracts awarded in these two regions was lower than in the previous year, so whilst they will provide a large source of construction work, they are not hotspot regions.

wdt_ID wdt_created_by wdt_created_at wdt_last_edited_by wdt_last_edited_at Location £ million Annual % change
21 Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Camden and City of London 6,185 67%
22 Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Birmingham 4,608 197%
23 Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Westminster 3,295 84%
24 Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Cambridgeshire CC 2,253 78%
25 Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Leicestershire CC and Rutland 1,641 69%
26 Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Thurrock 1,633 114%
27 Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Manchester 1,527 -42%
28 Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Bridgend and Neath Port Talbot 1,505 711%
29 Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Lewisham and Southwark 1,377 -10%
30 Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Heather Cameron 01/09/2026 03:56 PM Tyneside 1,329 92%

Large growth rates or contractions themselves do not necessarily signify a hotspot or coldspot, which is a key consideration for regions hosting small volumes of construction work, where growth rates on annual basis can be volatile. This is highlighted by contract award values in the Shetland Islands, which posted four-digit growth rates in 2025, but with actual contract award values at £96 million it was still one of the twenty smallest regions for contract awards in Great Britain. Similarly, contract award values in the regions of North and West Norfolk and North Yorkshire CC posted the largest falls in 2025, but these reflected a return to more ‘normal’ annual values that were boosted in 2024 due to large one-off infrastructure projects. Hotspots and coldspots are also, therefore, relative to the size of each region. In a region that typically has a low volume or value of contract awards, one residential project could double annual contract award values and push the 2025 total above the long-term average – a hotspot. In contrast, one residential project in Camden and City of London is unlikely to significantly affect the growth rate or variance from the long-term average and produce a hotspot.

Growth in contract awards in 2025 - Top 10
wdt_ID wdt_created_by wdt_created_at wdt_last_edited_by wdt_last_edited_at Location Annual % change £ million
11 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Shetland Islands 7778% 96
12 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Orkney Islands 2344% 241
13 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Buckinghamshire CC 793% 893
14 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Bridgend and Neath Port Talbot 711% 1,505
15 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM North Lanarkshire 587% 821
16 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM East Cumbria 519% 808
17 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Perth & Kinross and Stirling 495% 644
18 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Redbridge and Waltham Forest 426% 622
19 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire 358% 1,021
20 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:51 AM Central Bedfordshire 345% 564
Falls in contract awards in 2025 - Top 10
wdt_ID wdt_created_by wdt_created_at wdt_last_edited_by wdt_last_edited_at Location Annual % change £ million
11 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM North and West Norfolk -89% 415
12 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM North Yorkshire CC -77% 444
13 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Eilean Siar (Western Isles) -76% 23
14 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Merton, Kingston upon Thames and Sutton -74% 156
15 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Clackmannanshire and Fife -73% 517
16 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Kent Thames Gateway -69% 549
17 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Somerset -69% 363
18 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Lambeth -66% 204
19 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Shropshire CC -65% 229
20 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:53 AM Inverness & Nairn and Moray, Badenoch & Strathspey -64% 250

There are clear hotspots for upcoming construction activity over the next 6-24 months in Great Britain, with hotspots outnumbering coldspots by five-to-one overall and sixteen-to-one for infrastructure, which continues the trend of infrastructure driving hotspot activity seen in previous reports. The award of contracts for works under the AMP8 regulated period for water & sewerage projects, as well as contracts for energy generation and grid connections work and contracts for major projects such as stations for HS2 will undoubtedly have driven the strength of infrastructure.

Again, as in previous years, there were no broad hotspots in 2025 – where contract awards in each of the three main construction sectors of residential, commercial and infrastructure, were significantly above the long-term average. In this year’s report, single-sector hotspots in residential, commercial or infrastructure were most common, although there were several reporting hotspots in two sectors of construction. Encouragingly, regions with single or double hotspots were spread across Great Britain. Moreover, hotspots continued to outnumber coldspots in all regions of Great Britain. Regions registering the most hotspots were the North West, the South East and Scotland.

Given the varying nature in the size of construction projects, construction hotspots may also show due to a single large project in one sector (see table below). Although these may be viewed as skewing results, they still represent a significant driver of regional growth and activity and were a key driver of hotspots throughout the country. There was also a broader spread of construction sectors in the top ten largest contract awards in this year’s report – Tata Steel’s electric arc furnace in Port Talbot (industrial sector), Saunderton data centre near High Wycombe, which has an overall project value of £1.0 billion and two new hospitals – Monklands in Airdrie and Cambridge Children’s Hospital.

In smaller sub-regions, single, large offices, retail and residential projects can also generate hotspots: three small housing developments in Eastbourne, Hailsham and Frant drove East Sussex CC to be a residential hotspot in 2025, for example.

Construction coldspots featured only lightly across Great Britain. There were no coldspots in Yorkshire and the Humber or the South West and only one in the North East, the North West, the East of England and London. Coldspots were most numerous for the residential sector, which continues to highlight constraints on both the demand and supply side: confidence, deposit affordability and the affordability of mortgage repayments on the demand side and a rising regulatory and cost burden worsening viability on the supply side. Student accommodation – either private purpose-built or on-campus – retirement or care home facilities and military single living accommodation (SLA) often featured in the top ten largest residential contract awards across the regions.

Top 10 Highest Value Contracts in 2025

wdt_ID wdt_created_by wdt_created_at wdt_last_edited_by wdt_last_edited_at Project Value Area
11 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Moor Street & Curzon Street - Midlands Rail Hub £1.75 billion Birmingham
12 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Port Talbot Steelworks - Electric Arc Furnace £1.25 billion Bridgend and Neath Port Talbot
13 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM British Library Expansion £1.1 billion Camden and City of London
14 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM London Gateway Port Building - Extensions £1.0 billion Thurrock
15 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Monklands Hospital Replacement Project £700 million North Lanarkshire
16 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Cambridge Children's Hospital £671 million Cambridgeshire CC
17 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Euston Tower - Refurbishment £600 million Camden and City of London
18 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM 55 Old Broad Street - Office £500 million Camden and City of London
19 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Saunderton Data Centre - Virtus £500 million Buckinghamshire CC
20 Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM Heather Cameron 27/08/2026 09:58 AM 60 Gracechurch Street - Office £500 million Camden and City of London

Hotspots

A summary of key regional hotspots by sector is below:

Coldspots

A summary of key regional coldspots by sector is below:

Methodology

The ONS releases construction output data for Great Britain on a monthly and quarterly basis, and a regional breakdown of construction activity is reported three months following the end of the reference quarter. This regional data is only available on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and in current prices, making analysis more difficult than for national output data, which is available in constant price terms to indicate volumes of work.

Given the lags in reporting actual volumes of construction work completed, and the difficulties in measuring activity on a regional basis, this research seeks to identify regional ‘hotspots’ – where the value of construction contracts awarded in 2025 is above its historical average. This forward-looking approach aims to signpost areas of strength for construction over the next 12 months.

The analysis in this publication compares the value of construction contracts awarded in 2024 with the average (median) value of contract awards over the last four years across the residential, commercial and infrastructure sectors. If 2025 contract values are significantly above the long-term average, then this is considered a hotspot. Conversely, a region is considered a coldspot if 2025 contract values are significantly below the long-term average.

The hotspots are calculated using Barbour ABI data on contract awards, based on actual contract values, which have not been adjusted for inflation or deflation. The measure of heat indicates how the value of contracts awarded in 2018 compares with the long-term annual average, on a scale of –5 to +5: -5 being ‘very cold’, or significantly below the long-term average; +5 being ‘very hot’, or significantly above the long-term average.

Regional breakdown:

Regions in Great Britain have been broken down based on the International Territorial Level (ITL) level 3 groupings. This is one level above local authority-level data and is the UK standard for the subdivision of countries for statistical purposes. It mirrors the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) that is used by the EU.

There are 174 ITL3 regions in the UK, although the regions in this report cover the 168 regions in Great Britain only, to match the geographical coverage of construction output data from the ONS.

Sector breakdown:

The analysis is broken down to show contract awards in the three largest construction sectors: residential, commercial, and infrastructure.

Residential: housing (private developments), student accommodation, new build, conversions and change of use
Commercial: offices, retail, supermarkets, data centres
Infrastructure: railways and stations, roads, bridges, ports, harbours and waterways, energy and utilities

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